Hoop (Analytics) Dreams
Junior Villanova Business student Ethan Carpenter hopes to turn his interest and skill in sports analytics into a career in the front office of an NBA basketball team.
Villanova University junior Ethan Carpenter hasn’t gotten a lot of sleep this week. An equal parts basketball and sports analytics fanatic, there are few months better for Carpenter than March—with the NBA season cruising into its second half and March Madness taking control of the NCAA college basketball world. He has spent more than 40 hours this week writing computer code and running data sets to analyze some of the statistical anomalies most general sports fans don’t pay attention to.
A Finance and Analytics major in the Villanova School of Business (VSB), Carpenter tracks his passion for sports analytics back to 2009 when he participated in his first fantasy football league. Paging through his NFL sports almanac, he became so enamored with the formula and calculations for quarterback rating that he created his own unique running back rating.
Several years later, that passion for sports analytics moved from a focus on the gridiron to the hardwood of the basketball court.
“Honestly, I set out with one goal in mind,” Carpenter said. “To prove LeBron (James) was better than (Michael) Jordan.”
Although a loyal Boston Celtics fan, Carpenter is passionate about the skillset of three-time NBA MVP LeBron James and lands strongly on his side in the often debated “Who’s better, LeBron or Michael Jordan?” argument. His quest to prove LeBron’s victory in that debate was time consuming—including school recess, when he regularly chatted up his math teacher, Mr. Eric Pellegrino, about statistics. Carpenter has done his own personal analysis of LeBron vs. Jordan, which includes such factors at longevity, championships and championship appearances, playoff statistics, regular season statistics, quality of teammates, relative contribution to team, adjusted statistics relative to era, etc.
Sports analytics, along his Carpenter’s other love (running), became the basis for his college application essays. His analysis of the NBA game only increased upon his arrival at Villanova, when he began looking at play-by-play data and writing his own code to break down different statistical data sets.
One of the recent projects he has found most interesting examined the versatility of Golden State Warriors’ star guard Stephen Curry as both a scorer and a facilitator.
“I like breaking down lineups to see the diversity of roles that a player can take on,” said Carpenter.
Carpenter did a statistical analysis for Curry playing with different lineups. In 2019, Curry average 39 points and 4.9 assists per 75 possessions playing with teammates Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Jonas Jerebko—while in 2017, he averaged 18.5 points and 10.7 assists per 75 possessions playing with Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, JaVale McGee and Klay Thompson.
“This shows Steph’s versatility to play as a scorer and a facilitator,” noted Carpenter.
Carpenter’s work has gained attention from the sports media. An analysis he did on how NBA lineups have changed was referenced by Seth Partnow, who covers the NBA and basketball analytics for The Athletic.
Carpenter has also begun writing for “Nylon Calculus,” a basketball analytics vertical of FanSided, a fan-focused sports, entertainment and lifestyle website. His first article analyzed the 2012 trade that sent James Harden from the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Houston Rockets.
While his recent work has focused on the NBA, this week is all about March Madness. Carpenter has spent countless hours over the last week running statistical data sets for college basketball. His most interesting findings focus on the rise of college juniors in the NCAA Tournament. While the public and the media’s attention often centers on the big-name freshmen, who end up as NBA lottery draft picks just a few short months after the tournament ends, it is the talented juniors who are often leading their programs to success in March.
Nine of the last 13 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Players have been juniors, Carpenter notes. NCAA Champions Virginia in 2019, Villanova in 2018 and UNC in 2017 all had teams led by talented third-year players. Carpenter used lead rate and offensive load to compare teams in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, looking closely at those teams led by experienced juniors. Time will tell if this trend continues.
When Carpenter isn’t crunching numbers, he is in class … crunching numbers—with spring semester courses ranging from Math Statistics to Sports Analytics.
Carpenter hopes his VSB coursework and extensive work analyzing basketball statistics will lead to a job in analytics for a professional basketball team—and maybe someday as an NBA general manager.
“Right now, I love looking at statistics that can impact in-game decisions, such as lineup adjustments and substitutions,” Carpenter said. “It would be cool to work as an extension of the coaching staff, helping determine how to optimize substitutions throughout the game and responding to the moves of the opponents with data-driven decisions.”
“Long-term, I would love to be an NBA general manager,” continued Carpenter. “I would try to identify undervalued and under-appreciated players in order to build a better team. Whether draft analysis, free agency or trades, superstars or role players, I would live in a constant cycle of optimizing my roster to win games.”